How to know about the future?



I have spent this weekend with my close colleague building a university master level study programme on strategic foresight. As we have been weaving the programme together, one fundamental issue has been raised: how  do we really, I mean really, know about the future? Interestingly, we realized we need to focus inside to search for answer.

I explain: take any organization that wants to create  attractive future fot itself. What is the chance to succeed? The easy answer is: the amount of determination and resources you can produce to make that happen. Yes, true, but not at all the whole thing.

Much more important is how clear and reality-based you are in assessing where are you now. Why? Because your ability to understand it determines your position towards the future. Failing to grasp where you are now (like being too optimistic of the present state of affairs, often practiced by top management) makes any effort towards  future inevitably a failure of some sort.

So: in order to reach the future you need to know where you are now. There is no way to come around this principle.