Growth or something else?

There is growing debate around economist all around the world, whether we have, particularly here in the Western World, peaked the period of trendwise stable growth of about 3% or so, see http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/10/05/and-now-peak-growth-theory/ To me, it all started while I was working in Allianz, 2009. Then one of the head figures in Pimco, Bill Gross, brought up the concept of "new normalcy", meaning that those times of steady growth before the financial crisis are over and now we are heading towards turbulent times, where what used to be normal simply isn't.

Looking at various developments, particularly those of long-term socio-economic waves displaying the current situation being the end of one era and beginning of the next, and demographic change undermining the dynamics many Western countries, we cannot but conclude that indeed something fundamental is simmering. Next decades will be different, and not only because of economics but because of increasing pressure on raw-materials, climate and indeed on welfare. Our concept of what is desirable development for our societies should change. And it will, guaranteed.

 

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